论文部分内容阅读
突发事件发生、发展和演化过程中的风险属性来源复杂,且相关信息具有不确定、不完备的特点.为准确分析这一特点下的突发事件运行风险问题,引入模糊证据推理构建分析模型.首先根据突发事件的结构化描述框架和故障模式影响危害分析(FMECA)方法构建突发事件风险属性识别框架,获取信息作为风险分析证据并对其进行规范化处理;然后以模糊证据推理构建突发事件风险分析的模型,通过计算,给出事件风险程度的合理判断;最后选取CRH某型动车组行车安全事件进行实例分析.分析结果表明,在分析突发事件风险时,针对信息不确定、不完备特点构建的模糊证据推理模型具有可行性与有效性,同时该模型能够为突发事件风险分析和风险应对决策的制定提供辅助参考.
The sources of risk attributes in the occurrence, development and evolution of emergencies are complex, and the related information has the characteristics of uncertainty and incompleteness.In order to accurately analyze the operational risk of emergencies under this characteristic, the fuzzy evidence reasoning is introduced to construct the analysis model First of all, the framework of identifying the incident risk attribute is constructed according to the structural description framework of emergency and the FMECA method, and the information is taken as evidence of risk analysis and normalized. Then, Finally, a case analysis of driving safety incidents of a certain type of CRH is carried out. The analysis results show that in the analysis of the risk of emergencies, aiming at the problems of information uncertainty, The fuzzy evidence reasoning model constructed by incomplete features is feasible and effective. At the same time, the model can provide reference for the making of emergency risk analysis and risk response decision making.