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目的构建中华按蚊潜在分布和生物气候因子关系模型,研究影响中华按蚊潜在分布的主导气候因子,预测中华按蚊在中国的潜在分布,为在中国消除疟疾提供媒介分布的数据支持。方法根据2005-2010年媒介按蚊监测数据,应用最大熵模型(MaxEnt),采用“10%训练存在逻辑阈值”定义最小适生环境阈值,划分中华按蚊的适生区和非适生区。利用地理信息系统(GIS)估算暴露于中华按蚊分布区内的人群数量。结果采用受试者工作特征曲线(ROC曲线)分析方法来检验模型精度,得到的AUC值2005-2010年分别为0.814、0.791、0.783、0.801、0.774和0.802,显示预测精度较好。模型结果表明,年总降雨量、年平均气压、最湿季降雨量、最冷月最低气温对中华按蚊的分布有着重要影响。结论 2005-2010年,中华按蚊在中国的潜在分布和暴露人口均呈缩减趋势。掌握并了解中华按蚊在中国的潜在分布,对于中国消除疟疾和预防相关传染病具有重要意义。
Objective To establish a model for the relationship between potential distribution of Anopheles sinensis and bioclimatic factors, study the dominant climatic factors affecting the potential distribution of Anopheles sinensis, predict the potential distribution of Anopheles sinensis in China and provide data support for the distribution of malaria in China. Methods Based on the monitoring data of Anopheles intermedium from 2005 to 2010, the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) and the threshold value of 10% training logic threshold were used to define the minimum suitable environment for the fittest of Anopheles sinensis, Area. Estimate the number of people exposed to the Anopheles sinensis distribution using geographic information system (GIS). Results The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC curve) analysis method was used to test the accuracy of the model. The obtained AUC values were 0.814, 0.791, 0.783, 0.801, 0.744 and 0.802 respectively from 2005 to 2010, indicating that the prediction accuracy is better. The results of the model show that the annual total rainfall, annual mean pressure, the rainfall in the driest season and the coldest month in the coldest month have an important impact on the distribution of Anopheles sinensis. Conclusion From 2005 to 2010, the potential distribution and exposed population of Anopheles sinensis in China showed a decreasing trend. Understanding and understanding of the potential distribution of Anopheles sinensis in China is of great importance to eradicating malaria and preventing communicable diseases in China.