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高中教育持续扩张的有效需求,简言之是指要求并且有能力接受高中教育的初中毕业生人数的有效需求。这种需求决定着高中教育持续扩张的速度和规模,因为只有与有效需求比较吻合的扩张才是较高质量的扩张,超越有效需求的扩张将导致“泡沫发展”和重复建设,不能满足有效需求的扩张将导致高中教育的供给不足。1998年以来,湖南高中教育迅速发展,招生人数连续三年年递增17.41%,其中普通高中年递增34.0%[1]。2001年湖南省初中毕业生升学率达已60.17%,受这个成绩的鼓舞,各地各类学校纷纷筹资扩容、大上建设工程。对此,有必要客观分析一下高中教育持续扩张的有效需求。
The effective demand for continued expansion of high school education, in short, refers to the effective demand for the number of junior high school graduates who are able to receive and receive high school education. This demand determines the speed and scale of continued expansion of senior secondary education, as only expansion consistent with effective demand is a higher quality expansion. Expansion beyond effective demand will lead to “bubble development” and redundant construction that can not meet effective demand The expansion will lead to inadequate supply of high school education. Since 1998, Hunan’s high school education has been developing rapidly. The number of students enrolled has increased by 17.41% for three years in a row, with an increase of 34.0% in ordinary high school [1]. In 2001, the enrollment rate of junior high school graduates in Hunan Province reached 60.17%. Inspired by this achievement, all kinds of schools in various places have been funding expansion and construction projects. In this regard, it is necessary to objectively analyze the effective demand for the continuous expansion of high school education.