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分析和辨识了煤矿长斜井TBM施工的风险因素,构建了二层级的风险评估指标体系。首先,对集对分析法中联系度的取值进行了改进;其次,采用熵权法对各个风险因素的权向量进行计算,构建了一种改进的集对分析法的煤矿长斜井TBM施工风险评估模型,研究了风险计算值与联系度的变化关系。最后,利用该模型对台格庙矿区煤矿长斜井(1#、2#实验井)TBM施工风险进行了预测与评估,给出了对风险偏好、不同的施工管理人员对风险的不同取值方法。研究表明该模型与方法在煤矿长斜井TBM施工风险分析中是有效的、实用的,而且也为煤矿长斜井TBM施工风险管控工作提供新的理论支持。
The risk factors of TBM construction in long inclined shafts of coal mines are analyzed and identified, and a two-level risk assessment index system is constructed. Firstly, the value of the connection degree in the set pair analysis method is improved. Secondly, the entropy weight method is used to calculate the weight vector of each risk factor, and an improved set-pair analysis method is proposed to construct TBM for the long shaft of coal mine Risk assessment model, the relationship between the calculated value and the contact degree of risk is studied. Finally, this model is used to predict and assess the risk of TBM construction in the long shaft (No. 1 and No. 2) coal mine pit in Taigmiao Mining Area. The risk preference and different values of risk for construction managers are given method. The research shows that the model and method are effective and practical in risk analysis of long shaft inclined TBM construction in coal mine, and also provide new theoretical support for the risk management and control of long shaft inclined well in coal mine.