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文章运用协整检验、Granger因果关系检验等计量方法,分析广东1978—2004年间加工贸易对广东经济增长的影响。研究结果表明:加工贸易进出口、出口和进口均与经济增长(GDP)存在长期稳定的均衡关系,加工贸易对经济增长(GDP)的贡献率较高;加工贸易与经济增长(GDP)之间存在双向因果关系;加工贸易进出口、进口和出口与经济增长(GDP)之间由短期偏离向长期均衡的调整速度较快。
The article uses cointegration test and Granger causality test to analyze the impact of processing trade on Guangdong’s economic growth during 1978-2004. The results show that both import and export, export and import of processing trade have a long-term stable equilibrium relationship with economic growth (GDP), and the contribution rate of processing trade to economic growth (GDP) is high. Between processing trade and economic growth (GDP) There is a two-way causal relationship; the import and export of processing trade and the adjustment of long-run equilibrium between imports and exports and economic growth (GDP) from short-term deviations to rapid ones.