江西省是双季稻种植区,水稻产量历年来受气候因子的影响波动很大。其早稻与春季连阴雨、小满寒、高温逼熟,二晚与伏旱、伏秋旱、寒露风等天气条件密切相关,因而可选择生物学意义明确、关系密切的气象因子,建立产量气象预报方程,预测产量。省级产量气象预报方程建立在气候分区的基础上,早稻分为6个气候区,二晚分为4个气候区。各气候区因地制宜选择气候预报因子,其单产表达式为:Y=Y_t+Y_w+△Y,气象产量表达式为Y_w=sum from i=1 to n (B_iX_i+A)。按以上方程预测我省早、晚稻单产,自1984年以来其结果与统计局年报值相对误差均在±4％以内,且时效比其他部门提早1个月,该成果被评为省科技成果3等奖。 Jiangxi Province is a double cropping rice planting area. The output of rice has fluctuated greatly over the years due to climatic factors. The early rice and the spring even cloudy, small cold, high temperature ripening, two nights and the summer drought, autumn wind and cold and other weather conditions are closely related, so you can choose a clear sense of biological significance, closely related to meteorological factors, the establishment of yield weather forecasting equation, Predict production. The provincial output weather forecasting equation is based on the climatic zonation. The early rice is divided into 6 climatic zones and 2 nights into 4 climatic zones. The climatic zones select climatic factors according to local conditions, the yield of which is: Y = Y_t + Y_w + ΔY, the weather output is Y_w = sum from i = 1 to n (B_iX_i + A). According to the above equation, the yield of early and late rice in our province is predicted. The relative error between the result and the annual report of the Bureau of Statistics has been within ± 4% since 1984 and the aging time is one month earlier than other departments. The result has been appraised as provincial scientific and technical achievement 3 Award.