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2015年7月中旬开始至8月初,新疆地区受东移的伊朗高压控制,新疆南疆塔里木河流域及其周边区域遭遇历史同期罕见高温天气.南疆地区和天山山区7月平均气温分别为27.9℃、17.8℃,较常年分别偏高2.3℃、2.6℃,偏高幅度均居历史同期第一位;南疆及天山山区共计42站7月平均气温突破同期历史极值,使该地区从高空到地面不同高度气温都同时升高.0℃层高度都高于雪线高度,导致南疆多条河流发生冰雪消融性洪水,造成不同程度的洪水灾害.此次由高温天气产生的多条河流冰雪消融性洪水,由于具有充足的水热因子,致使南疆多条河流超过警戒流量和保证流量.尼雅河出现有实测资料以来第2位的洪水,阿克苏库玛拉克河发生有实测资料以来第3位的洪水;发生洪水的河流范围之广、持续时间之长历史罕见,叶尔羌河、玉龙喀什河、喀拉喀什河超警戒流量持续时间在半个月以上,叶尔羌河达到25 d.通过对历年冰雪消融性洪水资料分析,洪峰流量和日流量(洪量)与高空温度有较好的相关性,由此建立冰雪消融性洪水预报模型,应用在2015年夏季洪水预报中取得明显的效果,对于今后预报此类洪水提供了有益的借鉴.
From mid-July 2015 to early August 2015, the Xinjiang area was controlled by the high pressure of the Iranian eastward movement, and the Tarim River Basin in the southern border of Xinjiang and its surrounding area suffered rare high temperatures during the same period in history. The average temperature in July in the southern Xinjiang and the Tianshan Mountains was 27.9 ℃ and 17.8 ℃, respectively, 2.3 ° C above normal and 2.6 ° C above the normal respectively. The average temperature in July in the southern part of Tianshan Mountain and the total number of 42 stations in South Xinjiang and Tianshan Mountains exceeded the historical extremes of the same period, To the ground at different altitudes at the same time elevated temperatures .0 ℃ layer height is higher than the snow line height, resulting in the occurrence of snow and ice in many rivers in southern Xinjiang ablation flood, resulting in varying degrees of flood disaster. The high temperature caused by a number of rivers snow Due to sufficient hydrothermal factors, abrupt floods caused more rivers in southern Xinjiang to surpass the warning flow and ensure the flow rate, and the second flood since the measured data appeared in the Niya River. Since the measured data occurred in the Akzo Kumarak River, 3 floods; the scope of the flood occurred in a wide range of rivers, the history of a long history of rare, Yarkant River, Yulong Kashi River, the Karachash River super alert flow duration of two weeks , The Yarkant River reaches 25 days.Through the analysis of the data of snow melting and snow melting over the years, the flood peak flow and daily flow (flood amount) have a good correlation with the altitude air temperature, so as to establish the ice-snow melting flood forecasting model, which is applied in the summer of 2015 Obtaining obvious effect in flood forecasting provides a useful reference for forecasting such flood in the future.