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为建立苯暴露风险的定量研究方法,利用生理药代动力学(PBPK)模型与剂量—反应关系,进行苯暴露的致癌风险评价。采用美国环保署推荐的PBPK模型模拟软件,计算苯经吸收转化后进入人体的数据。将模拟得到的内剂量代入致癌风险计算公式中,得到苯暴露的致癌风险,并利用蒙特卡洛模拟方法确定风险概率分布,进行不确定性分析。最后将此健康风险评价方法应用于天津某大型石油化工企业,分析工人苯暴露下的致癌风险。结果表明,工人苯暴露的致癌风险明显超过了最大可接受风险值1×10-4,需要采取相关措施降低风险。
In order to establish a quantitative study method for the risk of benzene exposure, the carcinogenic risk assessment of benzene exposure was conducted using the relationship between the pharmacokinetics (PBPK) model and the dose-response relationship. Using the PBPK model simulation software recommended by the US Environmental Protection Agency, calculate the data that the benzene enters the human body after being absorbed and transformed. The simulated internal dose was substituted into the calculation formula of carcinogenic risk, and the carcinogenic risk of benzene exposure was obtained. The probability distribution of risk was determined by Monte-Carlo simulation and the uncertainty analysis was carried out. Finally, this health risk assessment method was applied to a large-scale petrochemical enterprise in Tianjin to analyze the carcinogenic risk of benzene exposed by workers. The results showed that the carcinogenic risk of benzene exposure of workers significantly exceeded the maximum acceptable risk value of 1 × 10-4, and the need to take relevant measures to reduce the risk.