论文部分内容阅读
2008年国际油价出现史上罕见的大起大落,2009年5月国际油价在此前大幅下滑后又出现10年来单月最大升幅。这显然不是经济因素和世界能源供求关系决定的。在其背后,国际政治因素和石油期货的炒作起着十分关键的作用。本文围绕国际油价变动出现的两类周期——国际政治基本面起主导作用的周期和世界经济基本面起主导作用的周期,揭示国际油价剧烈变动背后美国的金钱与政治的关系,并在对当前国际政治经济形势分析的基础上,对近期及中长期国际油价变动的前景做出分析和预测。
In 2008, the international oil price saw a rare ups and downs in the history. In May 2009, the international oil price dropped sharply in the past and appeared the largest single-month increase in 10 years. This is obviously not the economic factor and the world’s energy supply and demand. Behind them, the international political factors and the speculation of oil futures play a very crucial role. This article focuses on the two types of cycles of the international oil price changes - the cycle in which the international political fundamentals play a leading role and the cycle in which the world economic fundamentals play a leading role. The paper reveals the relationship between the money and politics in the United States behind the dramatic changes in international oil prices. Based on the analysis of the international political and economic situation, the prospects for the changes in the international oil prices in the near and mid-to-long term are analyzed and forecast.