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水资源优化配置是水资源管理中重要且复杂的课题。随着我国“千亿斤粮食增产计划”的提出,作为重要粮食产区的松花江流域面临着水资源能否承载粮食增产的迫切问题。然而,至今该区域鲜有涉及到粮食增产计划的水资源配置研究。本文选取松花江流域的哈尔滨市为研究对象,通过建立多目标规划模型,得到该区域2020年和2030年(p=75%)的水资源优化配置方案。配置结果可将各分区按农业生产潜力划分为4类:第一类为哈尔滨市区。随着城镇化进程加快,哈尔滨市区将会成为农业用水最为短缺的分区。在此形势下,哈尔滨市区的粮食增产空间很小;第二类为五常、尚志和宾县分区。分区内也存在农业用水短缺的现象。但由于短缺程度较小,如能加大节水措施和水利工程措施的建设力度,尚有粮食增产的可能;第三类为阿城、呼兰、木兰和方正分区。伴随着城镇化进程的进一步加快,分区内将会产生一定的农业用水短缺风险。根据分区情况,可通过加强节水措施建设来消除风险。分区内具备一定规模的粮食增产空间;第四类为双城、巴彦、依兰、延寿和通河等水资源条件较好的分区。分区内具备农业大规模发展的潜力。应提高水、土资源开发利用程度以确保粮食增产。研究成果可为制定哈尔滨地区实现区域水资源可持续利用的粮食增产计划提供科学建议和决策依据。
The optimal allocation of water resources is an important and complicated issue in water resources management. With the proposal of “100 billion jin grain production increase plan” in our country, the Songhua River basin, as an important grain producing area, is faced with the urgent issue of whether water resources can bear the grain yield increase. However, so far there are few studies on the allocation of water resources in the region that involve food production increases. In this paper, Harbin city in the Songhua River Basin is selected as the research object. Through the establishment of multi-objective programming model, the optimal allocation of water resources in 2020 and 2030 (p = 75%) in this area is obtained. The results of the allocation can be divided into four categories according to the potential of agricultural production: the first category is Harbin. As urbanization accelerates, urban areas in Harbin will become the most short-lived sub-districts for agricultural water use. Under this situation, there is little room for grain increase in Harbin urban area; the second category is Wuchang, Shangzhi and Binxian districts. There is also a shortage of agricultural water within the zoning. However, due to the shortage is relatively small, such as to increase water conservation measures and water conservancy construction measures, there is still the possibility of increasing grain; the third category is Acheng, Hulan, Mulan and Founder District. With the further acceleration of urbanization, there will be a certain risk of shortage of agricultural water within the zoning. Depending on the zoning, risks can be eliminated by strengthening water conservation measures. There is a certain amount of space for food production in the sub-region. The fourth category is the sub-region with better water resources conditions such as Shuangcheng, Bayan, Yilan, Yanshou and Tonghe. The district has the potential for large-scale agricultural development. The development and utilization of water and land resources should be enhanced to ensure the increase of grain output. The research results can provide scientific advice and decision-making basis for formulating the grain production increase plan to realize the sustainable utilization of regional water resources in Harbin.