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2014年8月3日16时30分,在云南省昭通市鲁甸县(27.1°N,103.3°E)发生Ms6.5地震,震源深度10km,死亡617人,失踪112人,受伤3 143人,受灾人口108.84万人.根据月亮赤纬角、太阳黑子极值年等周期变化及两者的叠加效应,总结出2013—2014年是云南强震高危期,具备Ms7地震的发生条件.次年,利用基础SW前兆仪的临震预测指纹法信息,制定了2014年底211号地震预测表,预测了2014年8月四川(26.18°N,105.33°E)将发生Ms5.3地震发生.2014年8月3日云南鲁甸Ms6.5地震表明:这次地震的指纹法预测时间相差1天,震中相差226km,震级误差Ms1.2.通过构造背景、地壳速度结构和震源机制研究,NW向的包谷垴-小河左旋走滑断裂是鲁甸地震的发震断裂.中下地壳低速(高导)体与包谷垴-小河断裂交接部位是流变界面能量释放的位置,即本次地震的震源位置,为板内地震三层次构造模式提供了一个新的案例.
At 1630 on August 3, 2014, an Ms6.5 earthquake struck Ludian County, Zhaotong City, Yunnan Province (27.1 ° N, 103.3 ° E) with a focal depth of 10 km and 617 deaths, 112 missing and 3 143 injured , Affected population 1088400. According to the moon declination angle, sunspot extreme year and other periodic changes and the superposition of the two summed up the 2013-2014 earthquake in Yunnan high-risk period, with Ms7 earthquake conditions. , A prediction table for the earthquake No.2011 at the end of 2014 was developed based on the information of the projectile prediction fingerprinting of the basic SW precursors and predicted that an Ms5.3 earthquake would occur in Sichuan (26.18 ° N, 105.33 ° E) in August 2014. In 2014 On August 3, the Ms6.5 earthquake in Lu’duan, Yunnan Province shows that the fingerprints of this earthquake differ by one day in duration, with a difference of 226 km in epicenter and magnitude error Ms1.2. Through the study of tectonic setting, crustal velocity structure and focal mechanism, The left-lateral strike-slip fault of a small river is a seismogenic fault of the Ludian earthquake, where the low-velocity (high-conductivity) body of the middle and lower crust and the junction of the valleys and valleys are where the rheological interface energy is released, that is, the source location , Which provides a new case for the three-layer structural mode of intra-plate earthquake.