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将区位理论、区域科学、交通规划等学科中广泛应用的引力模型引入县域区际客运需求分析,提出了基于引力模型的县域区际客运需求分析方法。该方法突破了传统方法仅限于用县域范围内的经济、社会变量去解释客流生成的局限,对县域交通需求生成分布特性进行了学术归纳,建立了区际客流量与基于相互作用区域的生产总值、人口、距离、车程时间、区域面积5个经济、社会及交通条件变量之间的方程关系。实证应用表明:该方法模型能被实例数据所标定,能很好地解释县域区际客运需求生成、分布机理,量化识别客运需求影响因素,预测客运需求内生变量的变化对线路客流量与需求潜力的影响;该方法丰富了县域区际客运需求分析理论,具有较重要的理论与实践应用意义。
The gravity model which is widely used in the area theory, regional science and transportation planning is introduced into the demand analysis of inter-county passenger transportation. The demand analysis method of inter-county passenger transportation is proposed based on the gravity model. The method breaks through the traditional method is limited to use the economic and social variables in the county area to explain the limitations of passenger flow generation, and makes academic inductions on the generation and distribution characteristics of the transportation demand in the county. It establishes the inter-regional passenger flow and the total production based on the interaction area Value, population, distance, driving time, the area of five economic, social and traffic conditions of the relationship between variables. The empirical application shows that this method model can be calibrated by example data and can well explain the generation and distribution mechanism of passenger demand in interregional counties and quantitatively identify the influencing factors of passenger demand and forecast the changes of passenger demand and demand This method enriches the theory of passenger demand analysis in interregional counties and has more important theoretical and practical implications.