中国大陆地区生态诅咒效应的多尺度实证检验

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基于生态系统服务理论界定生态福祉概念及其表征、评价方法,借鉴资源诅咒理论,提出广义生态福祉视域下的生态祝福及生态诅咒假说,结合有关年度统计数据、以中国大陆地区为例展开实证分析。结果表明:1从人均生态福祉来看,全国范围内的绝对生态诅咒假设不成立,东、西部地区生态祝福效应显著;2从农林牧渔产业从业人员比例来看,全国及地区层面的条件生态诅咒假设均不成立,东部地区生态祝福效应显著;3从农林牧渔产业产值比例来看,全国及地区层面的条件生态诅咒假设均显著成立。自然生态系统为提高区域人均生态福祉、吸纳富余劳动力就业等贡献显著,但促进地区经济社会发展还需不断降低农林牧渔产业产值在国民经济中的比例。未来,中国应当进一步实施因地制宜的生态保护措施以规避生态诅咒,并通过因时制宜的经济社会发展规划促进生态祝福效应。 Based on the theory of ecosystem services, this paper defines the concept of ecological well-being and its characterization and evaluation methods, draws lessons from the resource curse theory, puts forward the ecological blessings and ecological curse hypothesis from the perspective of general ecological well-being, and combines the relevant annual statistics with examples from mainland China analysis. The results show that: 1 From the perspective of per capita ecological well-being, the absolute ecological curse hypothesis nationwide is not established, and the ecological blessing effect in the eastern and western regions is significant.2 From the perspective of the ratio of employed persons in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industries, the conditional ecological curse at the national and regional levels Assumptions are not valid, the eastern region ecological blessing effect significantly; 3 from the ratio of output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry point of view, the conditional ecological curse assumptions at the national and regional levels were established. Natural ecosystems have made significant contributions to raising the per capita ecological well-being and absorbing employment of surplus laborers. However, the promotion of regional economic and social development needs to continuously reduce the proportion of the output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery in the national economy. In the future, China should further implement ecological protection measures that are tailored to local conditions so as to avoid ecological curse and promote ecological blessing effects through economic and social development planning that is in line with the times.
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