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本文以武汉市1994—2013年的税收数据为样本,利用PraisWinsten估计与2SLS分别对主要税种和直接税、间接税对武汉市经济增长影响进行实证检验。结果表明:武汉市现有税收结构中,增值税对经济的影响为负且显著,营业税对经济的影响为正但并不显著,企业所得税对经济的影响为正且显著,个人所得税对经济的影响为负但不显著;直接税与间接税对经济都有拉动作用,但间接税对人均GDP的贡献远高于直接税。最后,提出优化武汉市税收结构的相关政策建议。
Based on the tax data from 1994 to 2013 in Wuhan City, this paper uses PraisWinsten estimation and 2SLS to test the impact of major taxes and direct taxes and indirect taxes on the economic growth in Wuhan. The results show that: the existing tax structure in Wuhan, the impact of value added tax on the economy is negative and significant, the impact of business tax on the economy is positive but not significant, the impact of corporate income tax on the economy is positive and significant, personal income tax on the economy The impact is negative but not significant; both direct tax and indirect tax have a positive effect on the economy, but the contribution of indirect tax to GDP per capita is much higher than that of direct tax. Finally, put forward some suggestions on how to optimize the tax structure in Wuhan.