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本文针对以灌溉为主综合利用水库,多部门用水随机性的探讨,将入库经流过程和灌溉用水过程作为二维随机过程,提出了二元随机变量三维空间的优化调度模型。对于石门水库,通过长系列时历操作验算,由该模型所得调度规则的调度成果较常规法调度其灌溉保证率由0.800提高到0.865,多年平均年发电量增加了1.89％;与确定性优化调度的灌溉保证率基本相同,该模型具有一定的实用价值。对于确定性优化调度,本文采用多项式逐步回归法对其调度规则进行模拟,得出了石门水库的非线性优化调度规则。经长系列操作检验,所得调度规则可靠。
In this paper, aiming at the comprehensive utilization of irrigation reservoirs and the randomness of multi-sectoral water use, the two-dimensional stochastic variable three-dimensional optimal scheduling model is put forward as two-dimensional stochastic process. For Shimen Reservoir, the long-term calendar calculation shows that the scheduling results of the model obtained by this model are warranted to be increased from 0.800 to 0.865 as compared to the conventional method, and the average annual power generation increase by 1.89% in many years. Compared with the deterministic optimization scheduling Of the irrigation assurance rate is basically the same, the model has a certain practical value. For deterministic optimal scheduling, this paper uses polynomial stepwise regression method to simulate its scheduling rules, and obtains the nonlinear optimal scheduling rules of Shimen Reservoir. After a series of test operations, the resulting scheduling rules and reliable.