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为了建立远期合同对发电商市场力影响的更为通用的分析模型,首先以两阶段古诺博弈模型描述了发电商在合同市场和实时市场的策略性行为,并在此基础上提出了在考虑需求不确定性和网络约束影响的情况下,包含远期合同时电力市场均衡的SEPEC模型。然后应用Nikaido-Isoda函数法构造了求解其数字解的迭代算法。最后,以IEEE30-bus系统为背景,构造了电力市场算例,通过模型的仿真计算,实证研究了远期合同对市场力的影响。算例表明了模型的合理性和算法的有效性。仿真结果说明无论需求是否确定,远期合同的存在均有助于降低发电商的市场力。
In order to establish a more general analysis model of forward contract impact on market power of generators, a two-stage Cournot game model is firstly used to describe the strategic behavior of power suppliers in the contract market and real-time market. Based on this, Considering the impact of demand uncertainty and network constraints, the power market equilibrium SEPEC model with forward contracts is included. Then, an iterative algorithm for solving its digital solution is constructed using the Nikaido-Isoda function method. Finally, based on the IEEE30-bus system, an example of the electricity market is constructed. Empirical studies on the impact of long-term contracts on market power are carried out through the simulation of the model. The example shows the rationality of the model and the validity of the algorithm. Simulation results show that the existence of forward contracts helps to reduce the market power of generators, irrespective of the demand.