美国经济最大的风险不在于短期一、二个季度的衰退,而在于长期的低迷和滞涨。我们认为若美国经济持续低迷,势必会影响中国出口,使得前期大量的固定资产投资形成的产能回流国内造成过剩的供给并导致通货紧缩。相应的,资本市场也面临较大的不确定性。 The biggest risk to the U.S. economy is not the short-term decline of one or two quarters but the long-term downturn and stagflation. We think that if the U.S. economy continues to slump, it will inevitably affect China’s exports, causing a huge amount of fixed assets investment to form a backward production capacity that will lead to excess domestic supply and lead to deflation. Correspondingly, the capital market is also facing greater uncertainty.