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本文运用可计算一般均衡模型,结合TPP公布文本中对商品和服务贸易自由化措施对TPP的经济效果进行评估,同时比较分析了TPP条件下RCEP和亚太自贸区商品贸易自由化的经济效果。结果表明,TPP的发展中成员在商贸自由化中获得的相对收益较大,发达成员则在服贸自由化中相对收益更大;TPP的商品和服务贸易自由化会对其他APEC成员造成负面冲击;东亚国家可以通过RCEP来化解TPP的冲击;亚太自贸区更能代表多数APEC成员的利益。
This paper uses the computable general equilibrium model to evaluate the economic effects of TPP on the liberalization of trade in goods and services in the context of the TPP publication and at the same time analyzes the economic effects of RPLP and the liberalization of trade in commodities under the TPP. The results show that the relative incomes of the developing members of TPP in the liberalization of trade are larger while the developed members gain more relative benefits in the liberalization of trade; TPP’s liberalization of trade in goods and services negatively affects other APEC members ; East Asian countries can mitigate the impact of TPP through RCEP; APFZ can better represent the interests of most APEC members.