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气候、植被和人为活动的变化影响到区域的林火动态.基于生态地理区研究全国尺度上林火动态的变化是科学林火管理的基础.根据中国地面气候资料日值数据,把1961—2010年气温和降水两个气象要素差值到网格点(空间分辨率0.25°×0.25°),分析中国8个生态地理区森林分布区域的火险期气温和降水量变化,采用Mann-Kendall法分析气候和火动态的变化趋势.结果表明:1961—2010年,中国森林分布区的平均气温呈现线性上升趋势,但降水量变化趋势不显著,所有生态地理区的火险期平均气温显著增加,中温带半干旱/干旱地区草原区增温最显著,而大部分区域的火险期降水量变化不明显.研究区火灾次数呈现明显的波动性,受害森林面积显著下降.除中温带干旱地区荒漠针叶林区的火灾次数和受害森林面积呈现显著的增加趋势外,其他生态地理区都表现为双峰型变化曲线.
The changes of climate, vegetation and human activities affect the forest fire dynamics.Studies on the dynamic changes of forest fire at the national scale based on the eco-geographical area are the basis of scientific forest fire management.According to the daily value data of China’s ground climate data, the 1961-2010 The difference between the two meteorological elements of annual temperature and precipitation to the grid point (spatial resolution 0.25 ° × 0.25 °) was used to analyze the variation of air temperature and precipitation during the period of forest fire in eight ecologic geographical regions of China. The Mann-Kendall method Climate and fire dynamics.The results show that the mean temperature of forest distribution in China shows a linear upward trend from 1961 to 2010, but the change trend of precipitation is not significant, and the average temperature of the dangerous period in all ecological geographical areas significantly increases, In the semi-arid and arid areas, the warming was the most significant in the grassland areas, but the change of the precipitation in most areas was not obvious.The number of fires in the study area showed obvious fluctuation and the area of affected forest decreased significantly.With the exception of the desert coniferous forest in the temperate arid area The number of fires in the district and the area of affected forest area showed a significant increase trend, and other ecological geographical areas showed a bimodal curve.