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股票既是企业内在价值的一部分,又是筹码。本文侧重从筹码的角度去理解股价波动,从流动性、供给约束和故事题材三个角度,阐释对A股博弈行为的理解。股票既是企业内在价值的一部分,同时又是筹码,具有“二象性”。一些时候,譬如熊市里,股票更多地表现为企业内在价值的一部分,价格的波动主要由内在价值的变化引起。而一些时候,特别是在牛市里,股票又容易表现出筹码特性。一段时间里,市场参与者的交易心理和博弈行为,而非内在价值,主导股价的变化。如果那么在宏观层面,什么样的因素发挥着关键的作用呢?本文从流动性、供给约束和故事题材三个角度,阐释对A股博弈行为的理解。
Stock is both part of the enterprise’s intrinsic value and a bargaining chip. This article focuses on the understanding of stock price volatility from the perspective of bargaining chips, and explains the understanding of game behavior of A shares from the perspectives of liquidity, supply constraints and story themes. Stock is both part of the enterprise’s intrinsic value, but also a bargaining chip, with “duality ”. At times, such as in a bear market, stocks are more often manifested as part of the intrinsic value of the firm. Price fluctuations are mainly caused by changes in intrinsic value. And sometimes, stocks, especially in the bull market, can easily show the bargaining chip. For a period of time, the market participants’ trading psychology and game behavior, rather than the intrinsic value, dominate the changes in stock prices. If so at the macro level, what kind of factors play a key role? This article from the perspective of liquidity, supply constraints and the story illustrates the understanding of A-share game behavior.