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鉴于2000年以来黄河流域的水沙特征发生了较大变化,采用M-K检验法对黄河干支流主要水文站2000~2014年的水沙资料进行分析,探究了干支流水沙的变化趋势及成因,并结合Yamamoto突变检验法进一步判断出更可靠的突变点。结果表明,与1950~2000年相比,干流各水文站径流量的减小比例沿程增大,支流水沙的减幅均大于干流;头道拐至潼关间的支流是影响该河段输沙量变化的主要因素,而龙门至潼关站间,渭河对该段干流的径流量影响较大;经Yamamoto突变检验法诊断后,排除20个虚假点,发现黄河干流径流量和输沙量在2000~2014年间分别出现5、6次强突变,而支流突变点分布散乱,与干流间无明显关系;干流径流量自2004年后为增加趋势,其M-K值于2010年后突破临界值上限1.96;中游年输沙量在2003年前均为增加趋势,2005年后呈减小趋势且在2008年后均突破临界值下限。
In view of the great changes of water and sediment characteristics in the Yellow River Basin since 2000, the water and sediment data of major hydrological stations in the Yellow River and the Yellow River were analyzed by MK test from 2000 to 2014, and the variation trends and causes of water and sediment in dry and branch tributaries were also discussed. Combined with Yamamoto mutation test to further determine more reliable mutation point. The results show that compared with 1950 ~ 2000, the decrease proportion of runoff of each hydrological station increases along the mainstream, and the decrease of water and sediment in the tributaries is larger than that of the main stream. The main factors of the variation of sediment yield are the main factors that affect the runoff of the Yellow River from Tongmen to Tongguan, and the Weihe River has a great influence on the runoff of this part of the mainstream. After Yamamoto mutation test diagnoses, 20 false points are excluded, There were 5,6 strong abrupt changes between 2000 and 2014, respectively, but the distribution of abrupt changes in tributaries was scattered and there was no obvious relationship with the main stream. The runoff of main stream increased after 2004, and its MK value exceeded the upper critical value of 1.96 . The annual sediment transport volume in the middle reaches increased before 2003 but decreased after 2005 and exceeded the lower critical value after 2008.