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赌徒谬误指当某一独立随机事件发生后,人们倾向认为这一结果再次出现的概率降低。如果一连串的随机事件呈现出一定的趋势,人们倾向于认为随机事件将呈现系统性反转。证券市场中的赌徒谬误指在股票上涨(下跌)序列中做出股价将要下跌(上涨)的判断。本研究探讨股票市场特征(趋势长度及方向)及投资者的人格特征(自我效能感)对赌徒谬误的影响。以83名股票投资者为对象,采用多层线性模型进行分析,结果发现:趋势长度主效应显著,短线情境下赌徒谬误频次更高;趋势方向主效应显著,下跌情境下赌徒谬误频次更高;二者交互作用显著,在短线下跌情境下,赌徒谬误频次更高;投资者的自我效能感对股票趋势长度具有调节作用,高自我效能的投资者在短线情境下更容易出现赌徒谬误。
The gambler’s fallacy means that when an independent random event occurs, people tend to think that the probability of a recurrence of the result is diminishing. If a series of random events show a certain trend, people tend to think that random events will show a systematic reversal. The gambler fallacy in the stock market refers to the judgment that a share price will fall (rise) in a series of rising (falling) stocks. This study examines the impact of stock market characteristics (trend length and direction) and investor personality (self-efficacy) on gambler’s fallacy. Taking 83 stock investors as object, the author uses the multi-layer linear model to analyze. The result shows that the main effect of the trend length is significant, but the fallacies of gamblers in the short-term situation are higher. The main effect of the trend direction is significant. The interaction between the two is significant. In the case of short-term decline, gamblers have a higher frequency of fallacies. The investor self-efficacy has a regulatory effect on the length of the stock trend. High self-efficacy investors are more likely to appear gamblers in short-term situations error.