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根据湖北省主要产棉区 195 4～ 1997年棉铃虫第 3、4代发生程度的系统资料 ,应用Bayes判别分析原理 ,建立了棉铃虫发生程度的判别分析模型。通过对历史资料的回测及独立样本的预测 ,结果令人满意 ,从而为棉铃虫的长期预测预报提供了一个新的研究方法 ,亦可为其他虫害的预测预报提供借鉴
According to the systematic data of occurrence degree of the third and fourth generations of cotton bollworm from 1994 to 1997 in Hubei Province, Bayesian discriminant analysis principle was used to establish the discriminant analysis model of the occurrence degree of cotton bollworm. Through the backtesting of historical data and the prediction of independent samples, the results are satisfactory, which provides a new research method for the long-term prediction and prediction of the cotton bollworm and also provides a reference for the prediction and prediction of other insect pests.