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目的对株洲市脊髓灰质炎(后简称“脊灰”)野病毒输入和传播风险进行评估,寻找薄弱环节,作好预警预报,采取有效的防控措施。方法通过资料收集、现状分析、风险识别和分层分析评估等方法对脊灰输入风险评估指标体系中各指标进行定性风险分析,将各指标对脊灰输入风险的影响分为“可忽略风险”、“较小风险”、“中等程度风险”、“很大风险”4个风险等级。结果通过对风险因素各项指标分层分析得X1=0.27、X2=0.03、X3=0;风险值Y=0.3,即0.26≤Y<0.75,估计株洲市脊灰野病毒输入及疫苗衍生病毒传播风险为中等风险。结论株洲市对脊灰野病毒输入与疫苗衍生病毒传播仍存在中等程度风险。应协调好各有关单位各司其职,各负其责,采取针对性措施,落实维持无脊灰各项工作措施。
Objective To evaluate the risk of input and transmission of poliomyelitis (hereinafter referred to as “polio”) in Zhuzhou City for the weak links, make early warning and forecast and take effective prevention and control measures. Methods According to the methods of data collection, status quo analysis, risk identification and stratified analysis and evaluation, the qualitative risk analysis of each indicator in polio input risk assessment index system was conducted. The impact of each index on polio input risk was divided into “negligible risk ”, “ Smaller Risk ”, “ Moderate Risk ”, “ Great Risk ”4 risk levels. Results The risk of wild poliovirus infection in Zhuzhou and the risk of vaccine-derived virus transmission were estimated by stratified analysis of the various indicators of risk factors by X1 = 0.27, X2 = 0.03, X3 = 0; risk value Y = 0.3, ie 0.26≤Y <0.75 Medium risk. Conclusions Zhuzhou City is still at a moderate risk of poliovirus input and vaccine-derived virus transmission. All relevant units should be coordinated to perform their respective duties and responsibilities and take specific measures to implement the various measures to maintain poliomyelitis.