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运用Tobit模型对中国SITC-3位码行业出口数据进行实证分析,本文发现,生产率越高的行业出口能力越强,技术变迁带来的效率改进是出口增长的重要原因。但与中性技术变迁相比,偏向性技术变迁更适合解释中国不同行业的相对出口存在差异的问题。劳动和资本密集型行业发生的偏向资本技术变迁,是中国劳动密集型产品出口比重不断减小,而资本密集型产品出口比重不断增加的重要原因。偏向资本的技术变迁,以及由此引起的要素相对生产率改变,与要素相对禀赋一起,预示着我国动态比较优势的逐渐形成。
By using Tobit model to analyze the export data of China's SITC-3-bit code industry, this paper finds that the stronger the export capacity of industries with higher productivity, the more efficient the efficiency brought about by technological change is the important reason of the export growth. However, compared with the change of neutral technology, biased technological change is more suitable for explaining the relative differences in exports between different industries in China. The shift in capital and technology in labor and capital-intensive industries is an important reason for the declining share of China's labor-intensive products and the growing share of capital-intensive products in exports. The technological changes that favor capital, and the resulting changes in the relative productivity of factors, along with the relative endowments of elements, indicate the gradual formation of our dynamic comparative advantage.