基于塔里木河上游阿拉尔水文站1958~2007年的年径流量资料,采用累积滤波器、Kendall秩次相关检验和小波分析三种方法分析了气候变化背景下塔里木河上游的径流变化特征。结果表明,近50年来塔里木河上游年径流量呈微弱下降趋势,表现为6年和14年的周期变化;而受气候变化影响的近27年年径流量变化趋势趋于平稳,表现为6年和10年的震荡周期,可预测未来一段时间内塔里木河上游将处于一个由偏丰逐渐向偏枯转变的阶段。 Based on the annual runoff data of the Alar hydrological station from 1958 to 2007 in the upper reaches of the Tarim River, the characteristics of runoff in the upper reaches of the Tarim River under the background of climate change were analyzed by using three methods: cumulative filter, Kendall rank correlation test and wavelet analysis. The results show that the annual runoff in the upper reaches of the Tarim River has shown a weak downward trend in the recent 50 years, showing a period of 6 years and 14 years. However, the annual runoff changes of the past 27 years under the influence of climate change tend to be stable, showing 6 years And the 10-year period of the shocks. It is forecasted that the upper reaches of the Tarim River will be in a phase of gradual shift from partial abundance to partial decay in the next period of time.