论文部分内容阅读
基于全国农区527个气象站点1961—2010年逐日气象资料、逐年农作物病害发生面积以及产量资料,从气温、降水、日照等角度,采用相关分析方法,研究了气候变化背景下各气象要素变化对中国农作物病害发生的影响。结果表明:近50年来,气候变化导致的各气象因子变化总体有利于病害发生,年平均温度以0.27℃·10a-1的速率升高,其每升高1℃,可导致病害发生面积增加6094.4万hm2次;年平均降雨强度以0.24mm·d-1·10a-1的速度增加,其每增加1mm·d-1,可导致病害发生面积增加6540.4万hm2次;年平均日照时数以47.4h·10a-1的速率减少,其每减少100h,可导致病害发生面积增加3418.8万hm2次;在气候变化导致的光、温、水变化中,温度增加对病害发生面积增加的影响最为显著,其次为日照时数减少、第三为平均降雨强度增大,其标准化回归系数依次为0.508、-0.374、0.112。
Based on the daily meteorological data of 527 meteorological stations in China’s agricultural areas from 1961 to 2010, the occurrence area of crop diseases and yield data year by year, from the point of view of temperature, precipitation and sunshine, correlation analysis was used to study the changes of meteorological elements under the background of climate change Impact of crop diseases in China. The results showed that in the past 50 years, the change of each meteorological factor caused by climate change is generally conducive to the occurrence of diseases, and the annual average temperature increased at the rate of 0.27 ℃ · 10a-1. Each increase of 1 ℃ resulted in an increase of 6094.4 The average annual rainfall intensity increased at a rate of 0.24mm · d-1 · 10a-1, with each increase of 1mm · d-1, the area of disease occurrence increased by 65.44 million hm2. The annual average sunshine duration was 47.4 h · 10a-1 decreased by 100h each, which could lead to an increase of 34.1888 million hm2 times of disease occurrence. In the light, temperature and water changes caused by climate change, the effect of increasing temperature on the area of disease occurred was the most significant. Followed by a decrease in sunshine hours and a third increase in average rainfall intensity with standardized regression coefficients of 0.508, -0.374 and 0.112, respectively.