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如何科学制定贸易政策,决定着深度融入经济全球化和以开放促发展的我国,在国际贸易格局变化中自身经济的走向和未来命运。然而直至目前,国内学界对这一问题的深入研究却相对少见。藉此本文立足政治经济学框架,基于我国国体和新型市场经济体制所特有的“三维”贸易政策制定决策机制,拓展Tovar(2009)模型使之适用于我国国情,在分析损失规避心理对决策行为影响的同时,采用1999-2010年我国工业行业面板数据,来实证研究和检验若干理论假定的真实性与显著性,以及中美两国在贸易保护倾向上的差异,从而证实促使我国贸易政策妥善制定和有效实施的内在机理。并且由此提出深入推进我国供给侧改革的相关政策建议。
How to scientifically formulate trade policies determines the depth of economic globalization and opening up and promoting development in our country and its own economic trends and destiny in the course of changes in the pattern of international trade. However, until now, the domestic academic community has done a lot of research on this issue. Based on the framework of political economy, this paper makes a decision-making mechanism based on the “three-dimensional” trade policy peculiar to China’s state and new market economy, expands the Tovar (2009) model to make it suitable for China’s national conditions, analyzes the psychology of loss avoidance At the same time, we use the panel data of China’s industrial industry from 1999 to 2010 to study and test the authenticity and significance of certain theoretical assumptions and the differences in the trade protection tendencies between China and the United States, so as to prove that the promotion of China’s trade The proper mechanism for policy formulation and effective implementation. And put forward some suggestions on how to further promote China’s supply-side reform.