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贸易顺差是中国国民储蓄向国外溢出,是中国把净出口获得的外汇储蓄借给国外消费。“挤入效应”是近些年来中国对美国经常项目贸易顺差逐步扩大的经济现象,是一种解释“资本从穷国流向富国”的经济理论,是美国一些经济学家诠释中美贸易关系(顺差—逆差)形成原因的分析框架,“挤入效应”的背后是中国牺牲了国内的消费。中国传统的出口贸易增长方式一方面造成中美贸易摩擦、政治摩擦,另一方面则“挤出”了中国国内的消费需求,只有消费率提高了,中国经济增长的内生力才能形成。提高消费率是中国享用自己的巨大财富的要求,是中国转换经济发展模式的要求,也是促进贸易平衡的要求。
The trade surplus is a spillover of China’s national savings abroad. It is a lent by China to foreign consumers for the foreign exchange savings it earns from its net exports. The “crowding in effect” is an economic phenomenon that China gradually expanded its trade surplus with the U.S. current account in recent years. It is an economic theory explaining that “capital flows from poor countries to rich countries” and is interpreted by some economists in the United States The analytical framework for the formation of the U.S. trade relations (surplus-deficit) is behind the “crowding-in effect” because China sacrificed domestic consumption. China’s traditional mode of export growth has caused the Sino-U.S. Trade frictions and political frictions on the one hand, and “squeezed out” the domestic consumer demand in China. Only when the consumption rate has been raised can China’s economic growth endogeny be formed . Raising the rate of consumption is a requirement of China to enjoy its own enormous wealth. It is also a requirement of China’s mode of economic development and a requirement of promoting trade balance.