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在项目群大系统工程的安全综合评价分析中,存在较为复杂的评价要求。利用统计学的理论方法,采用单项指标与综合建模及量纲归一技术,全面论述安全评价的目的、意义和功能。首先构建一组综合无量纲指数作为安全指数,提出项目群安全指数综合分析模型、安全业绩综合考核模型和项目群安全率的分析模型,测评项目群系统的安全综合业绩,并对项目群安全建设的投入产出作出分析,建立工程项目群重大事故损失影响强度分析模型,最后通过实例计算工程项目群最优安全贡献率,以验证相关的数学方法和模型的可行性。
In the project safety assessment of large systems engineering analysis, there are more complex evaluation requirements. Using the theory of statistics, a single index and comprehensive modeling and dimensional regression techniques, a comprehensive discussion of the purpose of safety assessment, meaning and function. Firstly, a set of integrated dimensionless index is constructed as a safety index, and a comprehensive analysis model of project safety index, a comprehensive assessment model of safety performance and an analysis model of project safety rate are proposed to evaluate the safety comprehensive performance of project group system. The input-output of the project is analyzed, and the impact strength analysis model of the major accident loss in the construction project group is established. Finally, the optimal safety contribution rate of the project group is calculated through examples to verify the feasibility of the relevant mathematical methods and models.