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对中国外汇储备成因的传统研究在很大程度上忽略了市场化进程因素对中国外汇储备积累的历史性和制度化影响。而外汇储备的决定因素分为两大类:战略性因素和制度性因素。战略性因素包括预防性需求、重商主义动机和机会成本;制度性因素包括对外贸易发展和市场化程度。通过一个改进的外汇储备需求函数模型对该因素进行实证研究,发现中国的外汇储备积累主要是外向型经济发展模式和市场化改革这一历史进程的客观结果,而非货币当局基于主观动机所追求的战略目标。
The traditional research on the causes of China’s foreign exchange reserves largely ignores the historic and institutional impact of the marketization process on the accumulation of China’s foreign exchange reserves. The determinants of foreign exchange reserves are divided into two categories: strategic factors and institutional factors. Strategic factors include preventive demand, mercantilist motivation and opportunity costs; institutional factors include the extent of foreign trade development and marketization. An empirical study of this factor through an improved demand function model for foreign exchange reserves shows that the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves in China is mainly the objective result of the historical development of an outward-oriented economic development and market-oriented reform, rather than the pursuit by monetary authorities based on subjective incentives Strategic goal.