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本文选取2005-2012年间281个地级市的面板数据,运用门槛估计方法分别考察了货物劳务税与所得税影响城乡收入差距的非线性效应。研究表明,税制结构在第三方外部因素—经济发展水平门槛最优值两侧对城乡收入差距的影响具有非对称性。随着经济发展水平的提升,税制结构对城乡收入差距产生先抑制后促进的非线性作用效果,呈现出正“U”型的阀值转换特征,且货物劳务税与所得税对城乡收入差距产生的门槛效应存在差异性。参数异质性假设条件下的实证结果为我国未来税制改革提供了思路,即应逐步建立与经济新常态相适应的现代税制结构体系、明确定位不同税种在调节收入分配差距过程中发挥调控作用的切入点、实现税收与其他调节工具的协同配合。
This paper selects panel data of 281 prefecture-level cities from 2005 to 2012, and investigates the non-linear effects of the income tax of labor services and income tax on the income gap between urban and rural areas using the threshold estimation method. The research shows that the asymmetry of the tax structure on the income gap between urban and rural areas on the two sides of the threshold value of the third party external factors - economic development level. With the improvement of economic development level, the non-linear effect of the tax structure on the income gap between urban and rural areas is restrained and then promoted, showing the positive “U ” type of threshold conversion characteristics, and the difference between urban labor income and income tax The threshold effect is different. The empirical results under the hypothesis of parameter heterogeneity provide ideas for the future tax system reform in our country, that is, we should gradually establish a modern tax structure system that is compatible with the new economic normal and clearly define the role of different tax types in regulating the income distribution gap Cut into points to achieve synergies between tax and other regulatory tools.