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在理论分析基础上,基于STIRPAT扩展模型,运用动态面板数据模型实证了1995—2013年间中国产业转移过程中碳排放动态变化及区域差异。模型结果显示,经济发展水平、产业结构优化及工业碳排放强度的提升均会产生碳减排效应,这一效应在欠发达地区更为显著,碳排放具有明显路径依赖特征。人口因素存在不确定性,因此不能过高或简单评价人口绝对数量对碳排放的影响。进一步分析发现,就中国现阶段实际情况而言,尽管碳排放已成为经济发展的硬性外部约束,但是产业转移并不是碳转移的前提,关键还是在于经济发展与技术创新。因此,鼓励低碳技术创新、优化工业产业结构及制定区域差异化环境规制政策是实现我国碳减排的重要途径。
Based on the theoretical analysis, based on the STIRPAT extended model, the dynamic panel data model is used to demonstrate the dynamic changes and regional differences in carbon emissions during the period of China’s industrial transfer from 1995 to 2013. The results show that the economic development level, the optimization of industrial structure and the enhancement of industrial carbon emission intensity all have the carbon emission reduction effect. This effect is more significant in underdeveloped areas and the carbon emissions have obvious path dependence characteristics. Population factors are uncertain and therefore can not overestimate or simply assess the impact of the absolute population size on carbon emissions. Further analysis shows that in terms of the current situation in China, although carbon emissions have become a rigid external constraint on economic development, industrial transfer is not a prerequisite for carbon transfer, but the key lies in economic development and technological innovation. Therefore, to encourage low-carbon technological innovation, optimize the industrial structure and formulate regional differences in environmental regulation policy is an important way to achieve China’s carbon emission reduction.