论文部分内容阅读
目的通过对变应性鼻炎SARIMA模型的建立,探讨乌鲁木齐市住院患者变应性鼻炎的发病趋势,为该病的预警及防控提供理论依据。方法应用SPSS20.0软件包对乌鲁木齐市2002年1月-2016年5月变应性鼻炎发病率进行初步平稳化处理并建立SARIMA模型。结果 2002年1月-2016年5月变应性鼻炎在乌鲁木齐某三甲医院住院患者处于不断上升趋势,且存在明显的季节周期性变化,每年平均高发月份为7~9月份,利用该模型对乌鲁木齐市2016及2017年各月发病率进行预测,2016年6月-2018年5月乌鲁木齐某三甲医院变应性鼻炎发病人数依然为7、8、9月3个月居多。结论 SARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12模型能够有效地预测变应性鼻炎的发病趋势,为变应性鼻炎诊治提供积极的指导作用及依据。
Objective To establish the SARIMA model of allergic rhinitis and investigate the trend of the incidence of allergic rhinitis in hospitalized patients in Urumqi and provide a theoretical basis for the prevention and control of the disease. Methods SPSS20.0 software package was used to initialize the morbidity of allergic rhinitis from January 2002 to May 2016 in Urumqi and SARIMA model was established. Results From January 2002 to May 2016, the number of hospitalized patients with allergic rhinitis in a top three hospital in Urumqi was on an upward trend with obvious seasonal changes. The average annual incidence of allergic rhinitis was from July to September. Urumqi City 2016 and 2017 to forecast the incidence of each month, June 2016 - May 2018 Urumqi, a top three hospital incidence of allergic rhinitis was still 7,8,8 months 3 months majority. Conclusion SARIMA (1, 0, 0) (1,1,0) 12 model can effectively predict the incidence of allergic rhinitis and provide a positive guide for the diagnosis and treatment of allergic rhinitis.