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本文使用探索性空间数据分析工具研究了1988-2009年间中国各省区人均GDP的空间分布格局与特征,结果显示,一方面,存在着全域范围的正的空间自相关性,并且这种相关性随着时间的推移在增大;另一方面,局域相关也显示出中国局域性的空间集聚特征越来越明显。以一个表征市场潜能对地区经济发展影响的新经济地理学模型为基础,本文通过计量分析进一步考察了中国区域经济发展的空间溢出效应。经验分析表明,空间溢出效应是中国地区经济发展不可忽视的重要影响因素,市场潜能每增长1%,地区人均GDP增长率将提高0.47%,超过了地区固定资产投资增长的弹性值。当然,实证分析也发现这种空间溢出效应会随着地区间距离间隔的增加而减少。
This paper uses exploratory spatial data analysis tools to study the spatial distribution patterns and characteristics of GDP per capita in China during 1988-2009. The results show that on the one hand, there exists a global positive spatial autocorrelation, and the correlation between With the increase of time; on the other hand, the local correlation also shows that the spatial agglomeration characteristics of China’s locality become more and more obvious. Based on a new economic geography model that characterizes the impact of market potential on regional economic development, this paper further examines the spillover effect of regional economic development in China through econometric analysis. Empirical analysis shows that the spillover effect is an important factor that can not be ignored in economic development in China. For every 1% increase in market potential, the regional GDP growth rate will increase by 0.47%, exceeding the elasticity of regional fixed asset investment growth. Of course, the empirical analysis also found that this spillover effect will decrease as the distance between regions increases.