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本文选取了1986-2012改革开放以来30多年间湖北省进出口贸易和实际FDI数据,基于VAR模型和方差分析法,运用Stata10软件对改革开放以来外商直接投资与湖北省进出口贸易的相关性进行实证研究。通过Johansen协整检验说明,FDI与湖北省进出口贸易总额长期存在协整关系,即存在均衡关系。同时,研究发现,FDI对湖北省产业结构的升级有促进作用,带动了湖北省高新技术的发展。最后给出政策建议。
This article selects the data of import and export trade and actual FDI in Hubei province from 1986 to 2012, which is more than 30 years since the reform and opening up. Based on VAR model and analysis of variance, the paper uses Stata10 software to analyze the correlation between foreign direct investment and import and export of Hubei province since reform and opening up Empirical Research. The Johansen cointegration test shows that there is a long-term cointegration relationship between FDI and total import and export volume in Hubei Province, that is, there is a balanced relationship. At the same time, the study found that FDI can promote the upgrading of industrial structure in Hubei Province and promote the development of high-tech in Hubei Province. Finally, the policy recommendations.