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针对我国交通事故呈现出的在公路穿村镇路段聚集的趋势,在某山岭地形区域进行了双车道公路的交通事故、交通组成、道路和路侧等因素的大量数据采集,并对公路穿村镇路段的整体安全特性进行了分析,采用负二项模型等事故预测模型和相关检验理论对模型形式,以及公路穿村镇路段全部事故和追尾、碰撞、路侧等不同形态的事故规律特性进行了深入分析。研究结果发现,公路穿村镇路段的事故时空分布呈一定规律性;交通量、混杂率和道路横坡度为影响公路穿村镇路段交通安全的3个显著因素,且均呈正向影响。
In view of the trend of traffic accidents in our country, the traffic jam, traffic composition, roads and roadsides and other factors in a mountainous terrain are intensively collected. The overall safety features of the road are analyzed. The negative predictive model and the related test theory are used to analyze the model form and all the accidents of accidental, rear-end collision, roadside and other forms of road accident. . The results show that there is a certain regularity in the spatial and temporal distribution of accidents on the roads of villages and towns; traffic volume, miscellaneous rate and road cross-slope are three significant factors that affect the traffic safety of the roads passing through villages and towns and have positive effects.