2016年末,欧佩克11个成员国达成减产协议,欧佩克国家将减产120×10~4bbl/d,这是8年来首次达成减产协议。这无疑是继英国脱欧、特朗普当选美国总统之后的又一起黑天鹅事件。此前,全球多数投资机构对能否达成减产协议心存疑虑。沙特主动提议减产4.5%,换取伊朗原油冻产在380×10~4bbl/d的承诺,但伊朗一再坚持必须将原油产量恢复到制裁前的 At the end of 2016, 11 member countries of OPEC reached a production cut agreement, OPEC countries will cut 120 × 10 ~ 4bbl / d, which is the first time in 8 years to reach a cut agreement. This is undoubtedly another black swan incident following the Brexit in Britain and Trump’s election as the president of the United States. Prior to this, most of the world’s investment institutions have doubts about whether the production cut agreement can be reached. Saudi Arabia proposed a 4.5% reduction in output, in exchange for the Iranian crude oil frozen at 380 × 10 ~ 4bbl / d commitment, but Iran has repeatedly insisted on the need to restore crude oil production to sanctions before