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危机前的经济过热和对石油出口的高度依赖是俄罗斯出现严重经济危机的主要原因。2010年,俄罗斯从危机走向正常发展的方向。虽然对世界经济增长和原料价格的现有预测短期内对俄罗斯是有利的,但也存在巨大风险。文章认为,俄罗斯应采取措施,改善投资环境,同时通过国内储蓄来扩大积累本金。从经济结构来看,新经济部门在危机中经受了考验,但对效益不好的大型战略性公司进行扶持的政策并不可取。在管理体制上,必须找到新的经济增长点,从建立在等级制度上的国家官僚体制,向在世界上更为普遍采用的体制转型。国家现代化应该是经济政策的基石。现在,俄罗斯预算支出效益低下,而应伴随着预算资金分配机制向市场化和透明化的转型,提高支出效益,这对于俄罗斯国有经济现代化必不可少。
The pre-crisis overheating and high dependence on oil exports are the main reasons for Russia’s severe economic crisis. In 2010, Russia moved from crisis to normal development. While the current forecasts of world economic growth and the prices of raw materials are good for Russia in the short run, there is also a huge risk. The article believes that Russia should take measures to improve the investment environment, while expanding domestic savings through the accumulation of principal. In terms of economic structure, the new economic sector has been tested in a crisis, but the policy of supporting large, strategic companies that are not profitable is not desirable. In the management system, new economic growth points must be found, starting from a state bureaucracy built on a hierarchical system and transforming to a more commonly adopted system in the world. National modernization should be the cornerstone of economic policy. Now that Russia’s budget expenditure is not profitable, it should be accompanied by a shift towards a market-oriented and transparent budget allocation mechanism and an increase in spending efficiency, which are essential for the modernization of Russia’s state economy.