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梳理了国内关于能耗回弹效应的相关研究,提出了考虑技术进步与结构变动的产业能耗回弹效应测度方法。基于我国1978~2010年的数据,在对各项参数进行合理估算的基础上,测算了考虑技术进步与结构变动条件下产业的能耗回弹效应。结果表明,就多数年份而言,我国的产业能耗回弹效应在100%~200%范围变动,且没有出现明显减缓的趋势。这样的结论为正确认识节能减排形势和制定考虑能耗回弹效应的能源政策提供了依据。
Combing the domestic research on the rebound effect of energy consumption, and proposing a method to measure rebound effect of industrial energy consumption considering technological progress and structural changes. Based on the data from 1978 to 2010 in our country, based on the reasonable estimation of each parameter, the rebound effect of energy consumption of industry under the condition of technological progress and structural change is measured. The results show that for most years, the rebound effect of industrial energy consumption in our country fluctuates in the range of 100% ~ 200% without obvious slowdown. Such a conclusion provides the basis for correctly understanding the situation of energy conservation and emission reduction and formulating an energy policy that takes into account the rebound effect of energy consumption.