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根据历史规律,生猪行情3年为1个周期,价格高峰和低谷通常间隔1年半,包括补栏母猪到生猪供应上市需要“3个月配种、4个月妊娠、5个月育肥”共12个月的生产周期,以及养殖户对价格变化反应的滞后期。2004年、2008年和2011年曾出现了三轮显著的猪周期。照此推算,今年生猪行业高盈利,也将对应一个母猪补栏的高峰期,由此导致供求关系发生变化,2012年价格下跌,2013年行业进入亏损。
According to historical rules, the live pig market for a period of 3 years, the price peak and trough are usually separated by a year and a half, including the replacement of sows to market supply of pigs need “3 months breeding, 4 months pregnancy, 5 months fattening ”A total of 12 months of production cycle, as well as farmers lag period of response to price changes. In 2004, 2008 and 2011, there were three significant pig cycles. According to this projection, the high profitability of the pig industry this year will also correspond to the peak period of a sow’s rebirth, resulting in a change in the supply-demand relationship. In 2012, the price dropped and the industry entered a loss in 2013.