本文介绍了我国、日本和美国关岛的1986年台风路径业务预报和国内各种客观预报方法的平均距离误差、技巧水平以及对三个台风关键时刻的预报精度,分析了预报误差增大的原因后指出:提高台风实时定位精度是改进路径预报的重要途径;目前除了对那些移向移速突变和路径异常的台风缺乏预报能力外,对那些移向变化稍大的转折点预报同样存在一定难度。在业务预报中必须引起重视。 This paper introduces the average distance error, skill level and forecast accuracy of the typhoon track business forecast in 1986, the domestic objective forecast method in China, Japan and the United States in Guam and the key moments in the three typhoons. After analyzing the reason of the forecast error increasing It is pointed out that improving typhoon’s real-time positioning accuracy is an important way to improve the path forecasting. In addition to the lack of forecasting ability for the typhoon moving to sudden change and path anomalies, there is also some difficulty for those turning points with slightly larger changes. In the business forecast must pay attention.