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2011年全球大宗商品市场在成本支撑和经济低迷等主导因素博弈中呈戏剧性走势,即上半年节节攀高,下半年掉头俯冲,震荡下行。全球小麦市场走势类似,供需形势由上半年的偏紧转为下半年的较为宽松,国际小麦价格高位震荡后逐渐走弱。国内小麦连续第8年丰收,市场供应充足,但在成本推动及国家最低收购价政策等支撑下,价格整体小幅波动上升;新麦上市后价格高开稳走,国家托市收购未能启动,新麦收购市场化特点明显。2012年上半年全球小麦供需形势较宽松,北半球小麦播种面积持平略增,价格存在下行压力,而全球经济形势存在很大不确定性,农业生产成本持续上涨,小麦市场也存在波动风险;国内小麦市场供给充足,冬小麦播种面积稳定略增,播种质量提高,但在最低收购价政策支撑及国家“稳中求进”的推进经济工作主基调下,整体将保持稳中上升。
In 2011, the global commodity markets showed a dramatic trend in the domination game such as cost support and economic downturn, that is, they climbed steadily in the first half of the year and turned upside down in the second half of the year. The trend of the global wheat market is similar. The supply and demand situation shifted from the tightness in the first half to the more relaxed in the second half. The international wheat price gradually weakened after the high and volatile level. Domestic wheat harvest for the eighth consecutive year, the market adequate supply, but the cost of promotion and the national minimum purchase price policy and other support, the overall price rise slightly fluctuated; the price of wheat after the market opened higher and higher, the State Board failed to start the acquisition, The new wheat market characteristics of the obvious. In the first half of 2012, the global wheat supply and demand situation was relatively loose. The sown area of wheat in the northern hemisphere was slightly increased and downward pressure was exerted on the prices. However, the global economic situation was very uncertain. The cost of agricultural production continued to rise and the wheat market also posed risks of fluctuations. Domestic wheat The market supply is sufficient. The sown area of winter wheat is slightly increased and the quality of sowing is improved. However, with the support of the lowest purchase price policy and the promotion of economic work by the state, the overall stability will continue to rise.