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目的研究马尔可夫链在肺结核发病情况预测中的应用。方法用1992-01/2012-12月南方某部队肺结核发病资料建立模型,通过Markov模型预测其2013、2014和2015年的发病率状态。首先建立发病率的分级标准;然后用马尔可夫链模型来预测和分析发病率的变化状况,使预测结论的长期效果趋于最优;最后分析和评价预测结果。结果南方某部队肺结核的发病趋势将在以后一段时间内呈波动下降趋势。检验结果表明模型是合适的。结论用马尔可夫链对南方部队肺结核年发病情况的拟合结果满意,预测效果良好。
Objective To study the application of Markov chain in predicting the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis. Methods The data of pulmonary tuberculosis incidence in a certain unit of the southern army from 1992 to 01/2012 to December were used to establish the model. The Markov model was used to predict the incidence of tuberculosis in 2013, 2014 and 2015. Firstly, the grading standard of morbidity is established. Then the Markov chain model is used to predict and analyze the change of morbidity. Finally, the long-term effect of the predictive conclusion is optimized. Finally, the predictive result is analyzed and evaluated. Results The incidence trend of pulmonary tuberculosis in a certain unit of the southern part of the country will show a downward trend of fluctuation in a period of time later. The test results show that the model is suitable. Conclusion The fitting result of the annual incidence of tuberculosis in the southern army by Markov chain is satisfactory and the prediction effect is good.