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基于非集计离散选择模型理论,结合通道内各种运输方式特性,给出了在运用MNL模型预测通道客运分担率时特性变量的选取原则。分析了影响旅客出行方式选择的出行时间、安全性、舒适性、方便性、费用等因素间的关系以及各因素作为特性变量的适应性,认为在运用MNL模型预测通道客运分担率时应选取出行时间、费用收入比和发车频率作为特性变量,并给出了各特性变量的取值标定方法。结合旅客出行特征调查数据,进行了实证分析和各个特性变量灵敏度分析,得出制定客运专线运营策略时应主要考虑出行时间、费用和出行者收入变化影响的结论。
Based on the theory of non-aggregate discrete selection model and the characteristics of various transportation modes in the corridor, the principle of selection of the characteristic variables when using MNL model to predict the share of corridor passenger transportation is given. This paper analyzes the relationship between factors such as travel time, safety, comfort, convenience, cost and other factors that influence the choice of traveler’s travel modes and the adaptability of each factor as a characteristic variable. It is suggested that travel should be selected when using MNL model Time, fee income ratio and departure frequency as the characteristic variables, and give the value of each characteristic variable calibration method. Combined with passenger travel characteristics survey data, the empirical analysis and the sensitivity analysis of each characteristic variables are made, and the conclusion that travel time, cost and traveler’s income change should be mainly considered in the development of passenger line operation strategy should be considered.