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本文运用状态空间模型分析了湖北省居民部门收入、企业部门收入和政府部门收入(简称三部门收入)对湖北省最终消费和居民消费的影响。结果表明:企业部门收入几乎不直接产生最终消费和居民消费。1990-2007年,最终消费(或居民消费)对居民部门收入的弹性都大于其对政府部门收入的弹性。1994年以前,二者的差距较小,但是从1994年开始,二者的差距越来越大。前者几乎是直线上升,而后者几乎是直线下降。因此,增加湖北省的居民部门收入占比,虽然会相应的减少企业部门收入和政府部门收入占比,但能够达到刺激最终消费和居民消费的效果。1994年实行的分税制改革很可能是湖北省最终消费(或居民消费)对居民部门收入弹性和政府部门收入弹性剧烈变化的原因。
In this paper, the state space model is used to analyze the influence of the income of residents, income of enterprises and income of government (income of three departments in Hubei Province) on the final consumption and resident consumption in Hubei Province. The results show that: business sector income almost does not directly produce the final consumption and resident consumption. From 1990 to 2007, the elasticity of final consumption (or household consumption) to the household sector’s income was greater than its elasticity to the government sector’s income. Before 1994, the difference between the two was small, but the gap between the two had been growing ever since 1994. The former is almost straight up, while the latter is almost straight down. Therefore, increasing the proportion of residents’ income in Hubei Province will achieve the effect of stimulating the final consumption and household consumption though it will correspondingly reduce the proportion of revenue of the enterprise sector and that of government departments. The tax-sharing reform introduced in 1994 is likely to be the reason that the final consumption (or household consumption) of Hubei Province has greatly changed the elasticity of income in the household sector and the income elasticity of the government sector.