论文部分内容阅读
在本文中,我们研究了实际汇率波动对企业层次出口的影响,并分析这种影响是否受到现有的金融约束的影响。我们的经验分析依赖于2000~2006年超过100000家中国出口企业的出口数据。我们对实际汇率波动所产生的阻碍贸易的影响进行了证实。我们发现企业开始从事出口的决策以及出口金额都会在汇率波动上升到一定值时下降,同时,这一效应对于诸多金融脆弱的企业将会放大。正如我们所预期的,金融的发展看起来会对这一负面影响构成抑制作用,特别是对于出口的集约边际而言。这些结果提供的微观证据表明发展良好的金融市场有助于企业对冲汇率风险。在确定实际汇率波动对于现实结果的宏观影响时,这些结果同样还对金融约束的关键作用发挥了支撑性作用。
In this paper, we study the effect of real exchange rate fluctuations on the export of firms and analyze whether this effect is affected by the existing financial constraints. Our empirical analysis relies on export data from more than 100,000 Chinese exporters from 2000 to 2006. We have confirmed the effect of trade impeding resulting from real exchange rate fluctuations. We find that the decision-making by enterprises to start exporting and the export value all fall when the exchange rate fluctuation rises to a certain value. At the same time, this effect will be magnified for many financially vulnerable enterprises. As we expected, the development of finance appears likely to have an inhibitory effect on this negative impact, especially with regard to the export-intensive marginalization. The microeconomic evidence provided by these results suggests that well-developed financial markets can help firms hedge against exchange rate risks. In determining the macroeconomic impact of real exchange rate volatility on real outcomes, these results also play a supportive role in the key role of financial constraints.