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通过地震序列特征分析初步判断认为,河源ML4.8级地震与库水位变化的对应关系不明显,短期内震中区发生更大地震的可能性很小。现场宏观调查结果显示,极震区Ⅵ度等震线长轴为北北西向,震源机制解所反映的震源应力场主压应力方向为北西西向,与区域构造应力场方向一致;地震的发震构造应为北北西向,但震中区附近并无此组断裂出露地表,因此河源ML4.8级地震的成因,仍然值得深入研究。
According to preliminary analysis of seismic sequence characteristics, it is considered that there is no obvious relationship between the ML4.8 earthquakes in Heyuan and the change of reservoir water level, and it is less likely that a larger earthquake will occur in the epicenter area in the short term. The macro-survey results show that the major axis of the Ⅵ isobaric line in the epicenter is north-northwest and west, and the principal compressive stress direction of the source stress field reflected by the focal mechanism solution is NWW, consistent with the direction of regional tectonic stress field. The structure should be north-north-west direction, but no such faults are exposed near the epicenter area. Therefore, the cause of the ML4.8 earthquake in Heyuan still deserves further study.