根据美国国家飓风中心纽曼等人发展的大西洋飓风路径HURRAN模式的思想,我们建立了一个适用于西北太平洋的台风路径客观预报“相似法模式”。依靠四十年台风路径历史资料进行业务试验,结果表明该模式具有可允许的误差范围,且操作简便、计算迅速、效果稳定、可作为西北太平洋台风路径客观预报的一个业务模式投入实际使用。 According to the thought of the Hurrain mode of the Atlantic hurricane developed by Newman et al. At the National Hurricane Center, we establish an “analogous mode” of objective forecast for the typhoon track in the western North Pacific. Based on the historical data of forty years of typhoon track, the result shows that the model has permissible error range, and is easy to operate, rapid calculation and stable in effect. It can be put into practical use as a business model of objective forecast of typhoon track in the Northwest Pacific.