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鉴于目前在水利项目投资决策中应用的评价方法或过分依赖专家主观经验或对分析数据的要求过于严格,同时水利项目投资决策中的评价因子的选取尚无统一标准,运用极大不相关法对水利项目投资决策中的多个评价指标因子进行了复相关分析,剔除了复相关系数较大的指标因子,并将简化后的指标因子构成决策评价体系。同时结合模糊概率理论建立了水利项目投资决策的模糊概率模型。实例应用结果表明,该方法克服了其在实际应用中评价指标权重取值的局限性,具有明显的合理性,能在实践中得到广泛应用。
In view of the current assessment methods used in investment decisions of water conservancy projects or over-reliance on expert subjective experience or the data required for the analysis is too stringent, while the selection of evaluation factors in the investment decision-making of water projects there is no uniform standard, the use of a great deal of irrelevant law The multiple evaluation index factors in the investment decision of water conservancy project are analyzed by complex correlation, the index factors with larger complex correlation coefficient are excluded, and the simplified index factors form the decision evaluation system. At the same time, combined with fuzzy probability theory, the fuzzy probability model of investment decision of water conservancy project is established. The results of application show that this method overcomes the limitations of its value in practical application, has obvious rationality and can be widely used in practice.